How long will $1 million last in retirement?
By the RetireGlide Team · June 17, 2026
At $40,000 a year of portfolio spending (plus Social Security), $1 million has historically lasted 30+ years; at $70,000 a year it can be gone in under 17. The question 'how long will my money last' is really three questions: how much you'll spend above guaranteed income, what markets do in your first decade, and how much of the million the IRS effectively owns.
Headlines claiming '$1 million lasts 12 years in your state' almost always ignore Social Security — the average retired couple receives $45,000+ a year in benefits, which changes everything.
The simple math, then the real math
Naive division says $1M ÷ $50,000 = 20 years, but that ignores growth and inflation, which roughly offset early and then compound in whichever direction dominates. The historically grounded version: a 4% initial withdrawal ($40,000, inflation-adjusted) survived every 30-year US retirement on record with a balanced portfolio; 5% ($50,000) failed in roughly the worst fifth of sequences; 7% ($70,000) failed more often than it succeeded.
Now add Social Security: a couple spending $85,000 with $45,000 of benefits needs just $40,000 from the portfolio — exactly the 4% zone. A single retiree spending the same $85,000 with a $28,000 benefit needs $57,000 — deep in the danger zone. Identical portfolios, opposite verdicts.
The three modifiers that swing the answer
- Account type — $1M in a traditional 401(k) might fund only $800–850k of after-tax spending; $1M in a Roth funds the full million. 'How much do you have' is incomplete without 'where.'
- Sequence of returns — the same average return delivers wildly different lifespans depending on whether the bad years come early or late; this is why point estimates mislead and simulations don't.
- Spending flexibility — retirees willing to trim 5–10% in bad markets make a given balance last materially longer than rigid spenders, because they stop selling cheap shares exactly when it matters.
The better question
'How long will it last' invites a single guess about an unknowable future. A Monte Carlo simulation reframes it: across 1,000 plausible futures with your accounts, taxes, and Social Security, in what share does the money outlive you — and what monthly spending keeps that share where you can sleep? That's an answerable question, and the answer comes with a dial you control.
Frequently asked questions
- Can a couple retire at 65 with $1 million?
- Frequently, yes. With typical combined Social Security of $40,000–$55,000 a year, $1M can support total spending around $80,000–$95,000 at moderate risk. High spending, early claiming, or heavy pre-tax concentration change the verdict — model your specifics.
- How much monthly income does $1 million produce?
- About $3,300/month at a 4% withdrawal rate, before adding Social Security. Guardrail-style flexible strategies often support starting closer to $3,700–$4,000 with planned trims in bad markets.
- Does it matter what state I retire in?
- Some — state income tax on withdrawals, pensions, and Social Security varies (most states exempt Social Security). But spending level, claiming age, and account mix move outcomes far more than state tax differences for most households.
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Sources
RetireGlide is an educational modeling tool, not an investment, tax, or legal adviser. Numbers that change annually (tax thresholds, premiums, benefit formulas) are approximate — always verify against the official sources above. Read our full disclaimer.